Lilly's Mounjaro Falls Short of Trulicity in Heart Health Study

Eli Lilly and Company shares (NYSE: LLY) fell early Thursday following the announcement that their diabetes drug Mounjaro failed to show better performance than Trulicity, an earlier GLP-1 therapy, in a significant heart-related study.

After the publication of initial results from the SURPASS-CVOT trial, which evaluated the two therapies in adult patients with type 2 diabetes and pre-existing heart conditions, Eli Lilly's shares dropped by up to 4.5%, but then recovered somewhat, ending down approximately 2.25%.

Mounjaro achieved the main objective of the study, demonstrating non-inferiority by reducing major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE-3) by 8 percent when compared to Trulicity. Nevertheless, the medication failed to reach the level needed to establish superior effectiveness. The trial found a hazard ratio of 0.92, along with a 95.3% confidence interval ranging from 0.83 to 1.01, just falling short of statistical significance.

From the positive perspective, the research noted beneficial secondary effects associated with Mounjaro, such as a 16% decrease in overall death rate compared to Trulicity, along with enhancements in A1C levels, weight reduction, and renal health. However, these findings have not been corrected for multiple comparisons and therefore should not be viewed as conclusive.

Michael Shah, a researcher with Bloomberg Intelligence, described the outcomes as simultaneously promising and disheartening.

Eli Lilly's Mounjaro reached the main objective in the SURPASS-CVOT study, showing a comparable risk of significant negative cardiovascular outcomes compared to Trulicity. However, this achievement is weakened because the trial also aimed to prove superior effectiveness, which wasn’t confirmed (or at least not mentioned in the first announcement). The business impact might remain small since doctors typically see Mounjaro as a more efficient GLP-1 medication than Trulicity.

Eli Lilly announced that it intends to share complete study results at the European Association for the Study of Diabetes' annual meeting in September, aiming to file the research with global regulatory authorities by the conclusion of this year.

Eli Lilly stock price

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